Bad timing

Today President Obama met with the Dalai Lama which will no doubt provoke a response from the Chinese government tomorrow. It was interesting reading about the meeting in the news, especially this article. What really struck me was how far Obama is distancing his administration from Tibetan independence and human rights. A little off topic for the blog, but it certainly seems that the president has toned down his optimism after a year in office.

I've discussed Tibet and how it relates to the PRC's concerns about sovereignty and legitimacy to rule, so I won't go there. Instead, I think there are a few points to be made about the recent (read 20th century) events concerning Tibet.

• A Chinese government never governed Tibet until 1950 when PLA forces entered the territory.
• Tibet during the early 20th century requested assistance from Britain, India, and the U.S. to maintain its independence in the 1940s, but got nothing.
• When PLA forces entered Tibet, no nation came to Tibet's defense, even when there was a large uprising in 1958.

With those points taken into consideration, it makes sense that Obama would distance himself from Tibetan independence and make it clear that Tibet is part of the PRC. If the U.S. was really concerned about Tibet, it would have done something about the issue long ago.

I also can't help but feel a little sorry for the PRC. Yes, PLA forces seized control of the territory by force, but let us not forget that the U.S. did the same thing when expanding from 13 states on the east coast to the west by almost exterminating the Native Americans. Unfortunately for the PRC, no previous Chinese government sent in troops to lay claim in the 18th or 19th centuries. If they had, Tibet wouldn't be an issue today. Apparently timing is key not only for jokes and investments, but also seizing territory.

Lessons from Charlie Brown

The relationship between China and the Dalai Lama reminds me of Lucy and Charlie Brown from the Peanuts comic. For those of you unfamiliar with the comic and its stories, in one running gag Lucy holds an American football and tricks Charlie Brown into kicking it several times, only to pull the ball away and having poor Charlie fall on his back.

This comic can easily be applied to China and the Dalai Lama. They've had several dialogues about the status of Tibet, only to have Beijing refuse any change to the status quo. So to drive home the point, China is Lucy, the Dalai Lama is Charlie Brown, and the football is Tibetan autonomy. In the latest development, China has refused to consider greater autonomy (or real autonomy depending on your viewpoint) for Tibet, something that shouldn't have come as a shock to anyone. The international community can pressure China to holding more meetings with the Dalai Lama's representatives, but nothing will come of it - the Chinese government will always cling to its hold on Tibet (much like Lucy and the football).

It makes sense actually. If Beijing were to grant greater autonomy to Tibet, Xinjiang would most likely demand it, along with some powerful provinces of China proper. Consequently any shift by the Chinese government on Tibet could result in a weakening of the central government's control over other parts of the country, something that the CCP wants to avoid at all costs. The Chinese have long memories and it was only 100 years ago that they were on the cusp of warlordism. As such the international community should not expect any shift on the CCP's position on Tibet or any other part of China.